It was the perfect storm. The housing market during the pandemic has been red-hot from coast to coast. Several factors contributed to this phenomenon, including low mortgage rates brought on by the financial crisis, remote work that enabled buyers to work farther away from their workplaces, and a demographic wave of first-time millennial buyers. Years of under-construction have meant that demand for homes simply cannot be met. This has led to record prices.
What is the expected duration of this run? In the end, the home price appreciation rate of 19.9%, which set a 12-month record between August 2020 and August 2021, won’t last forever.
Several signs point to the housing boom fading. It appears that seasonality is returning to the market after it was absent during the holiday and vacation season last year. Moreover, many homebuyers are now beginning to get fed up with high prices. Bidding wars accounted for 60.3% of sales in October, down from the all-time high of 74.5% in April. Additionally, the Federal Reserve is more likely to raise interest rates to slow inflation. This would make homebuyers more expensive.
Will home prices grow in 2022 as a result? Here is what Fortune found after reviewing seven industry forecast models. However, the economic models do not arrive at any kind of consensus: Neither buyers nor sellers will feel at ease. According to some forecasts, price growth next year will set a new record for price growth. Some believe that this will be the slowest rate of growth in more than a decade.
Zillow and Goldman Sachs are at the top of the heap. During the period Oct. 2021-Oct. 2022, Zillow projects that home prices will increase 13.6%. At the same time, Goldman Sachs predicts a 16.5% increase between Oct. 2021 and Dec. 2022. During the lead-up to the 2008 housing crash, the biggest 12-month price movement was 14.1%. Goldman Sachs and Zillow predict priced-out buyers will fall further behind next year.
On average, Fortune calculates home prices have risen 4.6% per year since 1980. Four times as high as the price growth of 19.9% over the past year.
How does this affect homebuyers? In four of the seven models that Fortune looked at, it predicts that prices will fall back toward the historical average by 2022. According to Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae, U.S. home prices are expected to increase 7.9% and 7% respectively. However, that is still far below the staggering numbers we saw during the pandemic. The 12-month price rise forecasted by Redfin and CoreLogic has fallen to 3% and 1.9%, respectively.
The real estate market in 2022 will only be revealed with time. As you make plans for the new year, you may find these expert opinions helpful.
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